Wong Teck Chi

Twenty-four marginal seats are expected to play a major role in deciding which party rules Perak should a snap poll be called.

The Federal Court is expected to make its decision tomorrow regarding who should be the state’s rightful menteri besar, with the possibility of a snap election being called after that.

The majority of the critical 24 seats are Malay constituencies located in rural or semi-rural areas, and accordingly, Malay votes will be vital in determining the final winner of any snap election.

All these state seats were only won by a mere 10 percent majority in last General Election, and a 5 percent swing would result in a change of party.

12 marginal seats are now occupied by Umno, while the remaining seats are being filled by Pakatan.

There are total of 59 parliamentary seats in Perak, of which Pakatan won 31, in the last general election, with Barisan getting 28.

Malay constituencies

All of Umno’s marginal seats are Malay constituencies, while Pakatan have eight such seats, bringing 20 the total number of Malay-majority constituency seats.

Those marginal seats owned by Umno include Pengkalan Baharu, Kubu Gajah, Alor Pongsu, Manjoi, Sungai Rapat, Selam, Kamunting, Rungkup, Manong, Kampung Gajah, Sungai Manik and Lintang.

Pakatan’s eight marginal Malay seats are equally owned by PAS (Lubuk Merbau, Selinsing, Changkat Jong and Titi Serong) and PKR (Kuala Kurau, Kuala Sepatang, Changkat Jering and Behrang).

Interestingly, almost all the marginal Malay seats were contested between Malay candidates, with the exception of Kuala Sepatang; a seat with a significant number of Chinese voters and was contested by two Chinese candidates from Gerakan and PKR respectively.

Four marginal seats have a non-Malay majority, including Kepayang, Pokok Assam and Malim Nawar (won by DAP) and Teja (won by PKR).

It is widely believed that Malay voters – especially those in rural areas – will swing back to BN, as Umno has played up the issue of penderhaka and boneka against Pakatan MB Nizar Jamaluddin (left). It is further expected that more Chinese voters will turn against BN, and the Indian votes will be split.

Sources from Pakatan estimated that in last year’s Bukit Gantang by-election, they got and additional 15 percent to 20 percent of Chinese votes, while 4 percent of Malay voters went back to BN.

PAS face the highest risk

On the surface, if Malay voters swing back, Umno will have advantage in these majority-Malay marginal seats. However, it also depends on how many Chinese voters turn to Pakatan, and offset the swing in these constituencies.

On this basis, Umno should be able to wrest back those seats with a high Malay majority, while both parties will have a tough fight in constituencies with significant numbers of Chinese voters.

Hence, among the three Pakatan parties, PAS contestants in Malay majority seats face a higher risk in the coming election, as the party might lose most of its seats.

All six seats won by PAS have at least a 60 percent Malay constituency, including the seats of Lubuk Merbau (72 percent), Selinsing (71 percent), Changkat Jong (61 percent), Titi Serong (74 percent), Gunung Semanggol (80 percent) and Nizar’s Pasir Panjang (66 percent).

PKR also faces sizable risk because their seats are mixed-race constituencies, while most of the DAP seats are considered safe as they are located at Kinta Valley with non-Malay majorities.

Bad news

Adding salt to Pakatan’s wounds is that hasn’t been much good news for the coalition in the last year, but plenty of bad news including internal bickering- and, most notably, Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy case.

However, Perak PAS election director Asmuni Alwi remained confident about their chances. He analysed that those seats which the party lost marginally in the last general election were due to non-Malay voters, many of whom were still suspicious of the party.

He believes if the state held re-elections, PAS could gain more non-Malay votes, with the co-operation of Pakatan and the popularity of Nizar.

“The co-operation between the three parties was not so strong in last general election, but this time we are more confident of getting more non-Malay votes,” he said.

The seats which PAS lost marginally were Sungai Rapat (lost by 636, non-Malay percentage 38 percent), Pengkalan Baru (lost by 14, non-Malay percentage 36 percent), Kubu Gajah (lost by 66, non-Malay percentage 9 percent) and Selama (lost by 355, non- Malay percentage 17 percent).

Although Asmuni admitted that Umno still has strong support in Malay rural areas, he said PAS had expanded their grassroots after the last general election and the response has been good.

In the past, Perak PAS was strong in Kerian and semi-urban areas, while north Perak and rural areas were Umno’s strongholds.

PKR are expected to have tough fight in Kuala Kurau, Kuala Sepatang, Behrang and Teja.

Chinese support

Perak PKR vice president Chang Lih Kang (right) – who is also the Teja Assemblyman – believed that Chinese support is not an issue, but their main concern is their Malay support, which is relatively weak.

Besides, the Hutan Melintang seat – which won with a majority of 1721 votes – is also not comfortable, as it was part of Umno Vice President Zahid Hamidi’s Bagan Datoh parliamentary seat.

Road repairs

According to Chang, Zahid has aimed to wrest back the state seat and they have invested a lot of resources to woo the voters, including repairing roads.

Although DAP is relatively comfortable compared to PAS and PKR, the biggest Pakatan party in the state also has three worrisome marginal seats.

According to DAP Tebing Tinggi assemblyperson Ong Boon Piow, both Pokok Assam and Malim Nawar were held by MCA strongmen before the last general election.

Pokok Assam was previously won by former state exco Ho Cheng Weng while Malim Nawar was held by current Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Chee Leong.

For Kepayang, Ong said, “the state seat got a lot of postal votes from army and police, around 2000 to 3000.”

Meanwhile, the sole MCA seat which currently held by BN state exco Mah Hang Soon is considered safe, as according to Chang, the constituency has a lot of Orang Asli, who traditionally vote for BN.